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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.