🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."